A royalty is a window with two moving edges. When the money starts is set by first commercial sale, not signing; when it stops turns on patents, SPCs, exclusivity and deal structure. A field guide to modelling royalty duration, and the gap between contractual and economic expiry.

Celadon Partners is a private, transpacific private equity firm founded in 2018. It does not publish fund financials, does not disclose assets under management, holds no royalty interest identified in public sources, and carries no owned patent estate. Its documented activity in life sciences consists of a small number of

Chai Discovery spent two years turning a benchmark result into a customer list. On 14 July 2026 it closed a $400 million Series C at a $3.8 billion valuation, roughly triple its mark seven months earlier, with Eli Lilly, Pfizer, and Novartis already using its models. Chai is a

BMS wrote AUGTYRO down by 1.4 billion dollars. The charge is not the loss, it is the accounting noticing the loss. The same broken forecast lands as an intangible impairment on the acquirer, a provision for changes in expected cash flows on the royalty investor, and nothing at all

A regional out-licence usually ends by running off or by reverting on termination. A third ending is the boomerang: the licensor, often after being acquired itself, buys the territory back for fresh cash and extinguishes the royalty.

On 16 July 2026 Kalshi began listing clinical-trial and FDA contracts. Every royalty, milestone and CVR already embedded a probability of success. Now a handful of those numbers trade in the open. Here is what each contract prices, who is allowed to know it, and whether any of it is hedgeable.

The week in numbers Six days, July 12 to 17 of W29. The headline is Lilly's roughly $2.8B (up to $3.8B with CVRs) acquisition of AtaiBeckley for its psychedelic depression pipeline, announced July 16. The largest prints are completions, not originations: GSK / Nuvalent ($10.6B), Angelini

A drug-discovery company that out-licenses an asset to a larger partner ends up holding two very different things. One is a royalty on the partner's future sales, a contractual cash flow with a defined lifespan. The other is the rest of the pipeline, a set of

The Michael J. Fox Foundation for Parkinson's Research (MJFF) is the largest nonprofit funder of Parkinson's research in the world, and, unusually for this series, it files a full public tax return. It is donor-funded, evergreen, and structured as a grantmaker rather than an investor.