Sebastian Gensior

The Problem with Probability of Phase Transition (POPT) in Biotech and Pharma Probability of Phase Transition (POPT) is a commonly used metric in drug development that measures the likelihood of a drug candidate advancing from one specific phase of development to the next. Unlike broader metrics such as Probability of

Biotech investments are uniquely characterized by uncertainty, where extreme events—whether unexpected breakthroughs or catastrophic failures—play an outsized role. Traditional Gaussian models often fail to capture these tail risks, leading to flawed valuation, inadequate risk mitigation, and financial losses. Fat-tailed models, which emphasize the likelihood and impact of

Every year, large corporations—especially in pharma and biotech—proudly announce new startup accelerators, innovation challenges, or early-stage grant programs with great fanfare. They offer bold headlines: 🚀 “Empowering the Next Generation of Innovators!” 💡 “Investing in the Future of Healthcare!” 🤝 “Supporting Disruptive Startups Changing the World!” And then comes the

Hazard ratios (HRs) are a widely used measure in survival analysis, summarizing the relative risk of an event occurring in two groups over time. Despite their popularity, hazard ratios rest on fragile assumptions and can lead to oversimplified interpretations. This critique examines the statistical limitations of HRs, supplemented with illustrative

In drug development, where uncertainty reigns supreme and success often feels as elusive as a pot of gold at the end of a rainbow, metrics like Probability of Success (POS), Probability of Launch (POL), and Probability of Pricing and Access Success (PPAS) aim to provide clarity. At least, that'

Amongst biotech funding options, royalty financing sits as the misunderstood sibling: alluring but mysterious, promising much yet carrying hidden risks. For founders weary of venture capital’s incessant dilution or traditional debt’s rigid repayment schedules, royalty financing can seem like an elegant solution. It offers upfront cash without surrendering

Biotechnology operates at the confluence of intricate scientific inquiry and uncertain financial markets. Drug discovery, clinical trials, and regulatory approvals can each span multiple years—sometimes more than a decade—before a therapy ever generates revenue. Yet the dominant metric used to gauge the economic viability of such projects, Net

Value at Risk (VaR) is a financial metric designed to quantify the maximum expected loss of an investment portfolio over a specified time horizon at a given confidence level. While it is a cornerstone of risk management across industries, its limitations are glaring in the context of biotech, pharma, and

Raising capital for a biotech startup in Europe is a bit like trying to sell an avant-garde art piece to a minimalist. The innovation is there, the brilliance undeniable, but the reception feels tepid. Meanwhile, in the U.S., biotech founders routinely raise millions with little more than a

There is a certain rhythm to corporate fraud. A charismatic figure appears, claiming to be disrupting an industry, armed with a sleek PowerPoint deck and a TEDx talk. Investors throw money at them. Journalists write glowing profiles. They land a Forbes 30 Under 30 spot. And then, inevitably, the house