Sebastian Gensior

Venture capital, like any industry where past success is difficult to verify, has a long tradition of being economical with the truth. For those unfamiliar with the phrase, “being economical with the truth” originates from British political double-speak—often meaning to leave out inconvenient details while still technically telling the

Every year, the pharma industry rolls out its latest batch of “game-changing,” “best-in-class,” and “first-in-class” therapies, showering them with press releases, LinkedIn posts, and conference keynotes that make them sound like the next penicillin or insulin. The marketing is relentless. Sales reps are armed with glossy brochures, KOL endorsements, and

capable of wreaking havoc if overindulged. For biotech founders staring down the barrel of cash burn and trial delays, it offers a beguiling promise: extend the runway, skip the equity dilution, and keep your cap table intact. What’s not to love? Plenty, as it turns out. Like all debts,

Focusing on the real-world impacts of neglecting Extreme Value Theory (EVT), particularly in biotechnology and pharmaceuticals, offers a potent narrative. Bluebird Bio’s European retreat provides a compelling case study of how inadequate anticipation of pricing and market-access dynamics can lead to strategic and financial failures, and it serves as

The biotech world thrives on optimism. Pitch decks brimming with breakthroughs and life-saving treatments are a staple of the industry’s courtship of investors. Central to these presentations, particularly in oncology, is a venerable statistical tool: the Kaplan-Meier survival curve. Its simplicity and visual appeal make it the star of

The Problem with Probability of Phase Transition (POPT) in Biotech and Pharma Probability of Phase Transition (POPT) is a commonly used metric in drug development that measures the likelihood of a drug candidate advancing from one specific phase of development to the next. Unlike broader metrics such as Probability of

Biotech investments are uniquely characterized by uncertainty, where extreme events—whether unexpected breakthroughs or catastrophic failures—play an outsized role. Traditional Gaussian models often fail to capture these tail risks, leading to flawed valuation, inadequate risk mitigation, and financial losses. Fat-tailed models, which emphasize the likelihood and impact of rare

Every year, large corporations—especially in pharma and biotech—proudly announce new startup accelerators, innovation challenges, or early-stage grant programs with great fanfare. They offer bold headlines: 🚀 “Empowering the Next Generation of Innovators!” 💡 “Investing in the Future of Healthcare!” 🤝 “Supporting Disruptive Startups Changing the World!” And then comes the actual

Hazard ratios (HRs) are a widely used measure in survival analysis, summarizing the relative risk of an event occurring in two groups over time. Despite their popularity, hazard ratios rest on fragile assumptions and can lead to oversimplified interpretations. This critique examines the statistical limitations of HRs, supplemented with illustrative

In drug development, where uncertainty reigns supreme and success often feels as elusive as a pot of gold at the end of a rainbow, metrics like Probability of Success (POS), Probability of Launch (POL), and Probability of Pricing and Access Success (PPAS) aim to provide clarity. At least, that'