Sebastian Gensior

Clinical trials serve as the cornerstone of evidence-based medicine, providing critical data to evaluate the safety and efficacy of therapeutic interventions. However, the integrity of clinical trial data is occasionally compromised by statistical anomalies, whether due to unintentional errors, systemic bias, or deliberate manipulation. A thorough understanding of these anomalies

Venture capital, in theory, is about finding the best startups, wherever they may be. In practice? Many European VCs barely invest outside their own postal code. While American startups are routinely advised to incorporate in Delaware or Florida to attract capital, European founders often find themselves stuck in a bizarre

There are few things as vague yet self-important as the phrase “award-winning”. It’s a flex, a flourish, a signal to the world that whatever is being described—a person, a company, a software product—has been officially recognized as excellent by some authority. And yet, much like a Michelin-starred

Few phrases carry as much self-importance and ambiguity as “boutique consultancy”. It appears on websites, LinkedIn bios, and PowerPoint decks with the confidence of a billion-dollar firm, yet often refers to three ex-McKinsey employees working out of a WeWork. The word "boutique" suggests exclusivity, expertise, and personalized service.

Let’s talk about a topic that doesn’t get enough attention but is painfully familiar to anyone in the world of business, startups, or innovation: the conference conundrum. You know the drill—conferences that charge startups hefty prices to attend, panels filled with “big names” that offer little substance,

Likelihood of Approval (LOA) is a widely referenced metric in drug development, particularly in the later stages of the pipeline. It measures the probability that a drug candidate will successfully navigate the final stages of clinical trials—most notably Phase III—and achieve regulatory approval. While related to Probability of

Probability of Technical and Regulatory Success (PTRS) is a widely used metric in biotech and pharma, employed to estimate the likelihood that a drug will successfully advance through clinical trials and regulatory approval. By quantifying the probability of success, PTRS aims to provide investors, companies, and stakeholders with a risk-adjusted

Biotech valuations, characterized by their high volatility and dependency on uncertain outcomes, present unique challenges to traditional financial modeling. The inherent risks in drug development, including clinical trial failures, regulatory setbacks, and market dynamics, are compounded by the fact that many outcomes follow distributions with fat tails. Fat-tailed models, such

Project management—the noble art of being handed a budget, a timeline, and a goal, then tasked with delivering results while herding cats, pleasing stakeholders, and absorbing the blame when things inevitably go sideways. It’s the quintessential middle-management domain, and if it sounds like I know exactly what I’

Fat Tails, Black Swans, and Extreme Value Theory (EVT) offer a robust analytical framework for understanding rare, high-impact events that could significantly influence the trajectory of a pharma or biotech company. These concepts focus on the extremes in probability distributions, helping companies and investors better prepare for both catastrophic risks