Sebastian Gensior

Value at Risk (VaR) is a financial metric designed to quantify the maximum expected loss of an investment portfolio over a specified time horizon at a given confidence level. While it is a cornerstone of risk management across industries, its limitations are glaring in the context of biotech, pharma, and

Raising capital for a biotech startup in Europe is a bit like trying to sell an avant-garde art piece to a minimalist. The innovation is there, the brilliance undeniable, but the reception feels tepid. Meanwhile, in the U.S., biotech founders routinely raise millions with little more than a

There is a certain rhythm to corporate fraud. A charismatic figure appears, claiming to be disrupting an industry, armed with a sleek PowerPoint deck and a TEDx talk. Investors throw money at them. Journalists write glowing profiles. They land a Forbes 30 Under 30 spot. And then, inevitably, the house

If you’re short on time and need to grasp the core issues with traditional financial metrics in biotech and pharma, this guide is for you. These metrics—CAGR, TAM, DCF, NPV, IRR, and VaR—are commonly used but fundamentally flawed in industries dominated by uncertainty, fat-tailed risks, and

In Greek mythology, King Midas wished that everything he touched would turn to gold. In corporate life, many have developed the Midas Complex—a belief that everything they do is revolutionary. This condition often presents itself in bios featuring phrases like: * “Groundbreaking entrepreneur” – Yet another SaaS founder who built a

If venture capital were a relationship, it would be the kind of marriage arranged by a matchmaker who only gets paid when the couple divorces. It starts with stars in your eyes and promises of shared ambitions. Investors adore your vision; you adore their deep pockets. But as the years

The Internal Rate of Return (IRR) is beloved by private equity (PE) and venture capital (VC) firms, often regarded as the ultimate measure of an investment’s attractiveness. Its simplicity and comparability make it a favored metric to evaluate projects across industries. However, in the world of biotech—dominated by

Imagine this you’re an investor sitting in a polished conference room. The General Partner (GP) of a biotech-focused private equity fund is waxing poetic about their fund’s stellar TVPI. “We’ve achieved 2.5x!” they declare, their voice brimming with pride. A slide appears on the screen,

Clinical trials serve as the cornerstone of evidence-based medicine, providing critical data to evaluate the safety and efficacy of therapeutic interventions. However, the integrity of clinical trial data is occasionally compromised by statistical anomalies, whether due to unintentional errors, systemic bias, or deliberate manipulation. A thorough understanding of these

Venture capital, in theory, is about finding the best startups, wherever they may be. In practice? Many European VCs barely invest outside their own postal code. While American startups are routinely advised to incorporate in Delaware or Florida to attract capital, European founders often find themselves stuck in a bizarre