Sebastian Gensior

Probability of Launch (POL) is a comprehensive metric designed to estimate the likelihood that a drug successfully completes all clinical trial phases, gains regulatory approval, and enters the market. Unlike Probability of Success (POS), POL extends its scope to incorporate factors beyond regulatory milestones, such as manufacturing readiness, market dynamics,

1. Introduction: The Biotech Valuation Maze Biotech valuation is fraught with complexities that standard financial tools like Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) struggle to address. DCF's reliance on stable revenue curves and Gaussian risk assumptions fails to capture the volatile reality of drug development, where clinical failures, pricing pressures,

Probability of Regulatory Success (PRS) is a metric used to estimate the likelihood that a drug candidate will successfully navigate the regulatory review process and achieve market approval. PRS focuses exclusively on the final stages of the drug development pipeline, where regulatory agencies assess the efficacy, safety, and quality of

Every so often, I wonder if I’m shouting into the void. Not in the performative, social media outrage kind of way, but in the actual sense of watching bad ideas flourish, seeing obvious failures repeat themselves, and knowing that most people will keep playing along—because it’s easier.

When a venture capital (VC) firm or a legal team evaluates an early-stage biotech or pharma startup, due diligence is critical. The stakes are high: investments hinge on scientific credibility, commercial viability, and the ability to navigate regulatory hurdles. This guide details a forensic, red-team approach to uncovering

LinkedIn. The once-practical platform for professional networking has evolved into a peculiar blend of motivational seminar, humblebrag arena, and corporate confessional. You’ve seen the posts: “Starting my next adventure, which taught me so much about resilience and growth.” Or the classic ski-trip reflection: “Connecting with nature in

I have a confession to make: I’m fascinated by failure. Not in a morbid, schadenfreude sort of way, but in the way one might study an iceberg—not for the visible peak but for the vast, hidden bulk beneath. And in no industry is that unseen mass more significant

Mentoring: It’s Not Just a LinkedIn Title Mentoring is having a moment. If you’ve scrolled through LinkedIn recently, you’ve probably noticed an explosion of people adding “mentor” to their titles. It sounds noble, even glamorous—guiding the next generation, shaping the future, giving back. But let’s

Overall survival (OS) has long been considered the gold standard in oncology trials. Defined as the time from treatment initiation until death from any cause, OS provides a direct and intuitive measure of a therapy's impact on patient longevity. However, as the costs of oncology treatments skyrocket, even

Probability of Pricing and Access Success (PPAS) is an emerging metric that evaluates the likelihood of a drug achieving favorable pricing and market access post-approval. Unlike traditional metrics such as Probability of Success (POS) or Probability of Launch (POL), PPAS explicitly incorporates factors often neglected in drug development analyses—