Sebastian Gensior

Let’s talk about a topic that doesn’t get enough attention but is painfully familiar to anyone in the world of business, startups, or innovation: the conference conundrum. You know the drill—conferences that charge startups hefty prices to attend, panels filled with “big names” that offer little substance,

Likelihood of Approval (LOA) is a widely referenced metric in drug development, particularly in the later stages of the pipeline. It measures the probability that a drug candidate will successfully navigate the final stages of clinical trials—most notably Phase III—and achieve regulatory approval. While related to Probability of

Probability of Technical and Regulatory Success (PTRS) is a widely used metric in biotech and pharma, employed to estimate the likelihood that a drug will successfully advance through clinical trials and regulatory approval. By quantifying the probability of success, PTRS aims to provide investors, companies, and stakeholders with a risk-

Biotech valuations, characterized by their high volatility and dependency on uncertain outcomes, present unique challenges to traditional financial modeling. The inherent risks in drug development, including clinical trial failures, regulatory setbacks, and market dynamics, are compounded by the fact that many outcomes follow distributions with fat tails. Fat-tailed models,

Project management—the noble art of being handed a budget, a timeline, and a goal, then tasked with delivering results while herding cats, pleasing stakeholders, and absorbing the blame when things inevitably go sideways. It’s the quintessential middle-management domain, and if it sounds like I know exactly what

Fat Tails, Black Swans, and Extreme Value Theory (EVT) offer a robust analytical framework for understanding rare, high-impact events that could significantly influence the trajectory of a pharma or biotech company. These concepts focus on the extremes in probability distributions, helping companies and investors better prepare for both catastrophic

When I first considered WhatsApp as a professional communication channel, I was deeply skeptical. It felt too informal, too personal. Could a platform known for family group chats and memes really work for fostering a serious, engaged community? But sometimes, skepticism gives way to opportunity—and in this case, I’

Probability of Launch (POL) is a comprehensive metric designed to estimate the likelihood that a drug successfully completes all clinical trial phases, gains regulatory approval, and enters the market. Unlike Probability of Success (POS), POL extends its scope to incorporate factors beyond regulatory milestones, such as manufacturing readiness, market dynamics,

1. Introduction: The Biotech Valuation Maze Biotech valuation is fraught with complexities that standard financial tools like Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) struggle to address. DCF's reliance on stable revenue curves and Gaussian risk assumptions fails to capture the volatile reality of drug development, where clinical failures, pricing pressures,

Probability of Regulatory Success (PRS) is a metric used to estimate the likelihood that a drug candidate will successfully navigate the regulatory review process and achieve market approval. PRS focuses exclusively on the final stages of the drug development pipeline, where regulatory agencies assess the efficacy, safety, and quality of