Dear Santa: A Biotech Wishlist for 2026

The biotech sector has been mostly good this year. Please ignore a few failed trials and that one surprise FDA letter. As we hang our lab coats by the chimney with care, here is a holiday wishlist on behalf of biotech dreamers everywhere. We promise we learned our lesson about irrational exuberance. Well, mostly.

So if you are listening, Santa, here is what we are wishing for in 2026.

A Bull Market (Just for a While, Please)

Santa, could we get a sustained recovery in biotech stock prices? 2025 saw glimmers of hope, but it came after a brutal stretch that pushed roughly a quarter of biotech stocks to trade below even their cash holdings. Talk about lumps of coal in our portfolios.

We are not asking for a repeat of the pandemic frenzy. Just a nice, moderate rally where good news actually boosts stocks again, and where IPOs are not treated like stockings full of coal. We promise we have learned some humility from the last bubble. Mostly. A bit of bullish sentiment would help fund new cures and keep our investors as jolly as elves on eggnog.

In short: all we want for Christmas is a little biotech Santa Rally. One where solid trial data sends stocks upward (for a change) and where the XBI finally gives us more cheer than heartburn.

Faster Clinical Trials (and an Endless Supply of Patients)

We know you are magic, Santa, so how about a spell to speed up clinical trials? This year, trial enrollment felt slower than reindeer in molasses. Perhaps your elves could help run trial sites or magically rustle up eligible patients overnight.

On a serious note, faster enrollment means patients get lifesaving treatments sooner. Right now, about 80% of clinical trials are delayed due to patient recruitment problems, and as many as one in five trials fails outright for lack of participants.

Fewer delays would mean fewer frantic conference calls about "rescue recruitment" and more celebrating results on time. So slip some efficiency into our stockings: a dash of streamlined trial design here, a pinch of patient engagement there. Less downtime in 2026 would be the real holiday miracle for researchers and patients alike.

An FDA That Says "Yes" a Little More Kindly

We get it, Santa. The FDA's job is to keep us all safe, and sometimes they have to say "no." But could those nos be delivered a tad more gently?

This year brought its share of Complete Response Letters (the dreaded CRLs) and even a surprise clinical hold or two, which hit like a snowball to the face. Maybe the FDA could slip some positivity into those letters? Even a smiley face sticker would help soften the blow of "not approved in its current form."

We know it is a tough job making sure therapies are safe and effective. But in 2026, a kinder, more predictable FDA would earn our eternal gratitude. One that maybe says "yes" a little more often and reserves "no" for truly naughty drugs. And if a "no" must happen, maybe tuck in a note of encouragement. Or a coupon for coffee. Something to help the medicine go down.

M&A Matches Made in Heaven

Dear Santa, this one is a bit business-y: we wish for some sensible, timely mergers to save struggling biotechs and bring good science to patients. Picture it. Big Pharma swooping in like you on Christmas Eve, scooping up promising startups that are about to run out of runway.

There are dozens of biotech companies trading below their cash value. You can practically see the desperation. Even Rudolph's nose is not as red as these balance sheets.

Rather than let that science go to waste, maybe whisper in Pharma's ear to buy a few, at fair prices, in 2026. We are envisioning mergers that are truly matches made in heaven: Company A's orphan drug meets Company B's deep pockets and development expertise, and boom. Patients get a new therapy instead of another asset lost to the ether.

Nothing says holiday cheer in biotech like a well-timed acquisition that rescues a programme and its team. So Santa, maybe play matchmaker with your list of pharma CEOs. Bring together those who have and those who need, for cures' sake.

More Capital That Does Not Crush Shareholders

Here is a wish close to my heart: more ways to fund promising science without devastating dilution.

When stock prices are depressed, raising equity means locking in a painful valuation. When traditional debt markets demand onerous covenants and broad asset pledges, companies need alternatives. This is where royalty financing comes in. Companies receive upfront capital in exchange for a percentage of future product revenues. No equity given up. No debt covenants to trip over.

The market is growing. Deal sizes are increasing. But access remains uneven. Too much of the deal flow stays concentrated among a handful of large funds, while smaller biotechs struggle to even understand what structures might be available to them.

I am determined to make 2026 the year this changes. At Capital for Cures, we are building the data infrastructure and transaction support to make royalty financing more accessible. We have reverse-engineered over 1,000 deals and built the first public benchmark for pharma royalties.

On January 14th, we are hosting a royalty financing event in Warsaw together with Rymarz Zdort Maruta. Most royalty financing conversations happen in Boston, London, or Basel. Central and Eastern Europe has a growing life sciences sector, and it is time to bring this expertise to the region.

If you are in Warsaw mid-January, join us. Register here: lu.ma/0tmjth4p

Fewer Buzzwords, More Breakthroughs

Can we trade in some buzzwords for actual breakthroughs next year? 2025 gave us buzzword overload. Every pitch deck and press release was peppered with "AI-driven," "synergistic platform," "Web3 for healthcare," and other hype candy. Meanwhile, tangible progress sometimes got drowned out by the noise.

Our wish is that in 2026 we all focus on real science over hot air. Leave the buzzwords in the stocking and deliver real data under the tree. We promise to act appropriately surprised and delighted when an actual cure or robust result shows up, rather than yet another "revolutionary" platform that is all sizzle and no steak.

The industry would benefit from a little less FOMO and a little more p-values. So Santa, please bring us a collective resolution: less hype, more humble proof. A breakthrough or two (even small ones) will light up our faces far more than the 100th pitch claiming to "do AI blockchain synergy for oncology."

A Goldilocks Interest Rate

This one is a macro wish, Santa. Have a word with the Federal Reserve, perhaps? Biotech does not need zero interest rates again. We remember the bubble that brewed last time money was virtually free. But high rates have been a Grinch for our risk capital.

When money gets expensive, investors get shy, and the funding spigot for drug development tightens to a trickle. The result? The longest biotech IPO drought in recent memory and some very frugal R&D budgets. It turns out IPOs are inversely correlated with Fed rates. Lower rates tend to lead to more biotech listings.

We are not asking for an ultra-dovish Fed, just a "Goldilocks" rate that is just right. High enough to keep the economy stable, but not so high that biotech CFOs lose sleep over every interest payment. It is hard to plan a 10-year drug development journey when the cost of capital is playing musical chairs.

So maybe, Santa, slip Fed Chair Powell a note: "steady as she goes." A bit of rate stability (or a gentle decline) would go a long way toward restoring risk appetites. We promise not to throw too wild a party if money becomes a little easier to come by.

Public Patience with Science

Last on the list: we wish for a bit more public patience with how science actually works. Drug development takes time. Clinical trials have rules for good reasons. Setbacks happen even to promising programmes.

It is exhausting when every delay is treated as conspiracy and every price tag is met with outrage before anyone asks what went into developing the therapy. We are not asking for blind trust. Just recognition that bringing a new medicine to patients is genuinely difficult, expensive, and uncertain.

Perhaps remind the world that biotech folks are working to help people. Most of us got into this field because we wanted to make a difference, not because we thought it would be easy or lucrative. A little goodwill would go a long way.

Closing Thoughts

We realise, Santa, that some of these might be big asks. If you cannot fit a whole bull market in your sleigh, we understand. We will settle for any goodwill you can spare.

The biotech community remains hopeful and resilient, even when things look like a pile of coal. We have left out milk, cookies, and even a Petri dish of agar (just in case you want to culture some extra holiday cheer). Safe travels on your worldwide tour.

Yours truly, The Biotech Dreamers

Disclaimer: I am not a lawyer or financial adviser. The content on p05.org is provided for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal, or financial advice.