Sebastian Gensior

capable of wreaking havoc if overindulged. For biotech founders staring down the barrel of cash burn and trial delays, it offers a beguiling promise: extend the runway, skip the equity dilution, and keep your cap table intact. What’s not to love? Plenty, as it turns out. Like all debts,

Focusing on the real-world impacts of neglecting Extreme Value Theory (EVT), particularly in biotechnology and pharmaceuticals, offers a potent narrative. Bluebird Bio’s European retreat provides a compelling case study of how inadequate anticipation of pricing and market-access dynamics can lead to strategic and financial failures, and it

The biotech world thrives on optimism. Pitch decks brimming with breakthroughs and life-saving treatments are a staple of the industry’s courtship of investors. Central to these presentations, particularly in oncology, is a venerable statistical tool: the Kaplan-Meier survival curve. Its simplicity and visual appeal make it the

The Problem with Probability of Phase Transition (POPT) in Biotech and Pharma Probability of Phase Transition (POPT) is a commonly used metric in drug development that measures the likelihood of a drug candidate advancing from one specific phase of development to the next. Unlike broader metrics such as Probability of

Biotech investments are uniquely characterized by uncertainty, where extreme events—whether unexpected breakthroughs or catastrophic failures—play an outsized role. Traditional Gaussian models often fail to capture these tail risks, leading to flawed valuation, inadequate risk mitigation, and financial losses. Fat-tailed models, which emphasize the likelihood and impact of

Every year, large corporations—especially in pharma and biotech—proudly announce new startup accelerators, innovation challenges, or early-stage grant programs with great fanfare. They offer bold headlines: 🚀 “Empowering the Next Generation of Innovators!” 💡 “Investing in the Future of Healthcare!” 🤝 “Supporting Disruptive Startups Changing the World!” And then comes the

Hazard ratios (HRs) are a widely used measure in survival analysis, summarizing the relative risk of an event occurring in two groups over time. Despite their popularity, hazard ratios rest on fragile assumptions and can lead to oversimplified interpretations. This critique examines the statistical limitations of HRs, supplemented with illustrative

In drug development, where uncertainty reigns supreme and success often feels as elusive as a pot of gold at the end of a rainbow, metrics like Probability of Success (POS), Probability of Launch (POL), and Probability of Pricing and Access Success (PPAS) aim to provide clarity. At least, that'

Amongst biotech funding options, royalty financing sits as the misunderstood sibling: alluring but mysterious, promising much yet carrying hidden risks. For founders weary of venture capital’s incessant dilution or traditional debt’s rigid repayment schedules, royalty financing can seem like an elegant solution. It offers upfront cash without surrendering

Biotechnology operates at the confluence of intricate scientific inquiry and uncertain financial markets. Drug discovery, clinical trials, and regulatory approvals can each span multiple years—sometimes more than a decade—before a therapy ever generates revenue. Yet the dominant metric used to gauge the economic viability of such projects, Net