Advanced Private Equity Deal Structuring in Biotech & Pharma (U.S. & Europe)
Risk-Adjusted NPV (rNPV) in Biotech Valuation
The rNPV Formula
rNPV = Σ [P(success) × NPV(success) + P(fail) × NPV(fail)]
Explicitly models binary outcomes in drug development
✅
Success Scenario (50% probability)
Drug approved, market entry
NPV = $2.0B
❌
Failure Scenario (50% probability)
Trial fails, no approval
NPV = $0
🎯
Risk-Adjusted