Sebastian Gensior

The week of December 8-13, 2025 delivered extraordinary capital formation across biopharma, with $3.2 billion in follow-on offerings sold in a single 24-hour period on December 10—the largest such day in biotech history. Ligand Pharmaceuticals unveiled an ambitious five-year roadmap projecting 23% royalty CAGR while sitting on $1

Biotech deal announcements routinely trumpet eye-catching "biobucks" figures—billions promised in future milestone payments if all goes well. Yet few of those contingent dollars ever materialize. Between 2023 and 2025, the industry saw a striking gap between milestones announced and milestones achieved, as most clinical and regulatory milestones

A Dallas-based specialty lender approaches a pivotal moment as it prepares to merge with Runway Growth Finance, marking the end of an era for one of healthcare credit's most specialized players.

Terray Therapeutics has assembled what may be the largest proprietary chemistry dataset in drug discovery—13+ billion target-molecule binding measurements, growing at 1 billion per quarter. The Los Angeles-based company has raised over $200 million.

The Volume Trap: Why Diagnostic Royalties Don't Compound Royalty financing has become a cornerstone of life sciences capital formation, with biopharma royalty deals totaling $29.4 billion from 2020-2024. Yet the molecular diagnostics industry—now generating over $20 billion annually—remains almost entirely absent from this market. While

Biotech ETFs surge in 2025 as sector emerges from nuclear funding winter. XBI +37%, ARKG +43%, IBB +30%—all crushing the S&P 500. Big Pharma's $176B patent cliff drives M&A frenzy with 100%+ premiums. Fund flows turn positive for first time since 2021. Is the biotech winter finally over?

Royalty financing can be structured as a “true sale” (outright transfer) or a secured loan backed by royalties. True sales often reduce bankruptcy risk and can bring legal/financial advantages; loan-like structures may leave the buyer exposed if the seller faces distress.

The week's transactions tell a clear story: China-origin assets now command 32% of global licensing deal value, up from 21% just two years ago. This structural shift reflects years of R&D investment now yielding differentiated clinical-stage assets that global pharma cannot replicate internally. Antibody-drug conjugates and

Biotech valuation hinges on a small number of binary clinical events. A Phase 3 readout. An FDA approval letter. A manufacturing inspection that either passes or doesn't. These go/no-go moments create the fundamental tension in pharmaceutical M&A: buyers and sellers often agree on everything except

In my November 25 post, I discussed "Royalties as a Credit Derivative," exploring how creative financing can extend a biotech's runway without diluting equity. Oberland Capital is the real-world practitioner of that theory – a specialist fund that doesn't just bet on biotech outcomes, but